SBF and the Philosopher’s Stone

[Author’s note: This is a parody. I don’t know these people. I took artistic liberties with characters, timelines, and plot. The jargon is based on my own background as an MIT alumna, algo trader, tech founder, and reader of EA/ rationalist writings.]

NYC, 2017.

We’re in a big office space. The windows are darkened. It’s like a casino— we don’t know what time of day it is. Clusters of desks sport 2 to 11 monitors each, screen after screen of financial charts, models of financial data, computer code. This is Jane Street, a quantitative trading firm.

A young trader turns to a middle aged trader, points to a graph on his computer screen, “Does this analysis show the lead lag correlation between ETF—” 

The older trader says without looking up, “Ask SBF.”

We cut to a cluster of young traders sitting around the desk of a crazy-haired, sloppily dressed 25 year old. This is SBF, aka Sam. He’s playing a video game while fielding questions, his fingers flying over the keyboard, clicking on macros on his custom gamer mouse to quickly execute multiple complex commands with a single touch. 

A trader asks SBF, “The exchange confirmed the positions. What do you want to do to offset the risk on these overnights?”

SBF doesn’t look up from his video game, “Hedge it with SPY’s. But not 100%. Our models picked off those orders before their cancel messages were executed so we should have some edge.”

The traders around him take notes. One of the traders whispers to another, “I heard he was the highest paid trader of his class.” 

A trader asks SBF, “How do I make as much money as you? I’ve been here longer and you’re tracking to make 20X more than me.” He looks around, embarrassed, then shrugs. “Not like our bonuses are secret.”

SBF says, “I work hard. And I try not to be wrong about important stuff.”

The traders take notes. “And how do you do that?”

SBF shrugs. “I guess… I always think about work. And I make sure to be right and smart and rational.”

“But… what if you want to go have fun?”

“What do you mean?”

“Like… go to a party, or a date.”

“Just don’t do that.”

“Don’t you get tired?”

“Oh. I take nootropics and drugs for that.”

The traders take notes.

A frizzy-haired girl with glasses and buck teeth asks, “Sam, the algorithm you were talking about today that only works in high vol environments… Are you going to run it tomorrow?”

Hearing her voice, SBF does look up from his video game. He says, “Why not, Caroline?”

Caroline is the only girl in the room. She stammers, “Well, if the economic release tomorrow is like the last one, your analysis showed it might fluctuate by a whole day’s PNL in a few minutes. Is it worth risking all our other models’ performance-”

SBF talks excitedly, jabbing his finger down onto his leg for emphasis. “If it’s positive expected value and has long term potential for good risk adjusted returns, it’s our job to figure out the trade. If the numbers check out, it’s our moral duty as traders- nay- as rational actors, to stomach the risk. Otherwise another firm could build it out and eventually crush us.” 

Caroline gulps. The other traders look at SBF with admiration and respect. He’s got nerves of steel and thinks so strategically. It’s impossible to argue with his logic.

Caroline presses, “But why not try it with smaller size first?”

SBF says, “Some things work best if you go… big.”

Caroline blushes. 

SBF’s eyes widen. He abruptly goes back to coding and playing his game with renewed vigor. 

===

Palo Alto, 2017.

SBF is home for the holidays. His parents’ advanced degrees and photos with Steve Jobs, Nobel laureates, and famous Stanford alumni line the walls. The modified-Eichler house is beautiful, warm, and very Bay Area with its skylights, glass walls, compost bins, solar power, natural textiles, redwood floors. Everyone is sitting down for a vegan dinner.

SBF’s dad says, “I talked with Professor Gordon today. His son’s nonprofit’s doing well. Did you know he started one? They’re working with the Gates foundation on tackling malaria.”

SBF nods, eats hurriedly without tasting anything. 

SBF’s mom says, “How’s your work, Sam? Are you having fun? Making friends? It’s still a surprise to me that you’re a trader, whatever that is. I was telling my friend today I was sure you’d be a professor like us.” 

SBF’s dad says, “I’m glad he went into something different. Not everyone has to worry about saving the world.”

SBF protests, “I care about the world! I earn to give. I donate a majority of my income-”

SBF’s mom soothes him, “Of course you do, honey. No one has a bigger heart than you. You’re our star.”

Everyone keeps eating. 

SBF’s mom says, “So how involved is Bill Gates with that project? I heard malaria was one of his highest priorities.”

After dinner, SBF calls his friend, another Sam, nicknamed Trabs. SBF fidgets and starts playing a computer game as he waits for the call to connect.

Trabs answers, “Hey, Sam.”

“Hey Sam. What’s up?”

SBF pauses. He abruptly minimizes the game from his screen. He leans forward and speaks with a new intensity, “Do you ever think about what this is all for?”

“You mean, the meaning of life?”

“Yeah.”

“Um… not really. I mean… isn’t it about having fun and learning and stuff?”

SBF starts fidgeting and pacing. “I know we’re not supposed to talk about work because we’re from rival firms, but I’m one of the top at my firm. I know you must be crushing it too. This field is just not that deep. No one really knows what they’re doing. I built our derivatives platform in my 2nd year. Junior lab was harder than this. We had problem sets freshman year that were harder than this. Think what we could do if we took more risk.”

Trabs hesitantly replies, “What do you mean more risk? We take risk every day-”

SBF cuts in, “We take risk on behalf of the firm, but not in our own lives. Don’t you see? There’s more to life than making millions of dollars a year.” 

Trabs laughs. “You mean like… making billions of dollars a year?”

SBF chuckles but is serious. “Right. That’s literally impossible if we stay at our trading firms.”

“People would say we’re crazy to walk away from-”

“We’re not ‘people.’ Normal people are struggling to pay rent. Our BATNA is that we move in with our infinitely supportive parents and live amazing lives. Or just get other jobs making at least a few hundred grand a year. People of our opportunity, privilege, and talent have a duty to take more risk, to be more.” 

“So… how do we do that?”

===

1 year later…

Berkeley, 2018. The office is crowded, desks jammed right against each other, monitors everywhere. There’s a small sign written in sharpie that says Alameda Research on the door, otherwise it’s nondescript. SBF is sleeping in the office on a bean bag. The vegan protein drinks he subsists on are littered everywhere. It’s past midnight and his coworkers whisper so as not to disturb him. The office is full, everyone still working, unkempt, long hair, dirty hair and feet.

Caroline and Trabs are interviewing a candidate who’s dressed in a suit while they wear gym shorts and MIT/ Stanford t-shirts. The candidate stifles a yawn and says, “The answer is root n over e.” Caroline and Trabs look at him, impressed. 

Trabs says, “Did you do that in your head?”

The candidate nods, “Yes.”

Trabs looks over at Caroline, who says to the candidate, “Can you please wait outside for a moment while we confer?”

The candidate exits. Caroline turns to Trabs, who looks excited. He smiles at her hopefully, “Well?”

Caroline says, “Send the candidate home. Not worth waking up Sam over.”

Trabs protests, “But no one else has ever gotten those answers that fast. I think we might’ve postulated a new theorem. And look-“ Trabs gestures to the candidate’s resume. “International math Olympiad, international informatics Olympiad, international physics Olympiad-”

Caroline interrupts, “Sounds great for a sleepy monopoly like Google that just needs to not die too fast. You know what Sam says. We have to have the whole trifecta.” She counts them off on her hands to demonstrate, “Super genius, crazy hard working, and self sacrificing. This person isn’t inspired by a huge mountain of work and the prospect of saving humanity. Most people just want to make enough money to go home to their families and enjoy their lives.”

Trabs pulls at his hair. “So?”

Caroline retorts, “Which isn’t enough for our mission! Sam says once you have kids, you can no longer think rationally. Your utility function gets warped into prioritizing your own kid over random strangers. You start valuing your first million dollars more than the next million dollars. That’s irrational. We need people who are monkishly devoted to work, who always want the next million as much as they wanted their first million, who see the importance of making more money so they can save more lives today, who feel as urgently about saving a stranger’s kid as they would about saving their own kid. You can’t be a monk if you have kids. Even if you’re smart and hard working, you can’t save all the suffering strangers in the world if you’re not willing to take a massive calculated risk.”

Trabs sighs, defeated. “I’ll just say, ‘not a culture fit.’”

===

2 years later… 

Hong Kong, 2020. 

The office is again packed with desks and nerds hard at work. The city glitters below them. It’s past midnight. The employees are kids who wear t-shirts that say “FTX.” 

SBF sits with a serious, thin, middle aged Chinese man. The Chinese man sizes up SBF, who plays a computer game. SBF’s hair is longer and unrulier than ever.

The Chinese man says, “So, what make you think your exchange will survive? Why people use FTX instead of Binance?”

Without looking over, SBF says, “With all due respect, CZ, sir, because we let them trade cheaper and faster.”

CZ rubs his chin, looks skeptical. “How you give better price?”

SBF says, “The full details are proprietary, but our liquidity engine funnels the tough to match orders to Alameda, who’s better able to internalize that flow because it trades a larger basket.”

“And you let the customers trade with leverage? How you collateralize?”

“Same way everyone else does.”

CZ grins for the first time. “Yes. Tokens. We both discovered alchemy- the secret of turning shit into gold!” CZ cackles and makes money gestures with his hands.

“I don’t want that. I’m in it to make an impact.”

CZ scoffs. “Come on.”

“It’s true! I want to do the right thing. The logical thing. The right business choice.”

CZ smiles knowingly. “You want me show you right way do business in Asia?”

SBF nods earnestly. “Yeah. Of course.”

We cut to CZ and SBF in a casino sitting at a betting table surrounded by dancing women. Chinese music blasts and CZ takes a shot. The scantily clad women rub themselves against CZ and spill alcohol. SBF sits on his hands, nervously shaking his legs. His fingers itch for the comfort of his gaming mouse. A woman strokes his hair and he shrinks from her touch. 

A woman approaches with a whole roast pig. CZ says to SBF, “Eat the face. Best part.”

Grey faced, SBF shakes his head and swallows an urge to vomit.

“Which girl you like?”

“I’m good. No thanks.”

“You ever go to casino? Splash cash?”

SBF shakes his head no.

“You should spend more time here. This is the business we’re in. Gambling. You know how I learned about crypto? While playing poker! I was degen. I went homeless to buy crypto. Have you heard more degenerate shit than that? Like addict. Crypto religion. That’s why I know my customers. Everyone in crypto because like us. Dream of big money, better life.”

SBF demurs, “I just want to add liquidity to markets-”

CZ leaps up and throws the roast pig off the table, stunning SBF into silence. A woman runs to clean it up, wiping on her knees, picking up the food with her hands. CZ ignores her. “You pretend you are better. Better than human. You pretend you don’t like food, sex, money. You‘re a machine for altruistic purpose, a god, above base urges, right? But how will you give the people what they want if don’t admit the vice in every man?”

“I don’t— I think—”

CZ looks disgusted. “You think too much, Sam. Outside you talk pure, inside you’re dirty like the rest of us.” CZ addresses one of the scantily dressed, dancing women. “Agree? Aren’t the nastiest lovers the ones who button up and tie their ties perfectly?” CZ looks back over at Sam. “How much you want to bet she agrees? $10K? $100K?”

Sam shakes his head, “I don’t want to bet against you. I wouldn’t know. I agree with you.”

“What kind of trader doesn’t bet?”

“All my trades are automated.”

“Of course!” CZ slaps his leg. “You hide behind math and machines. But have you been tilted? Have you been stuffed with a bad order and felt the sinking in your whole body as it moved against you? Have you agonized over whether to puke out of your position and eat the loss, or to let it ride on the blind hope it’ll come back?”

“I would never do that. That’d be irrational—”

“Ha! Rationality nothing. Everyone has limit. You haven’t been pushed, but one day must. On tilt. Then learn the hard lesson we all must learn. How it feel to be horribly punished for mistake. Denial, shock, loathing, blame, doubling down, make it worse, dig in deeper…”

“I would never do that.”

“Let’s test.” CZ’s smirk drops. “I flip this coin. You call it. If you win, I give you $50MM investment for 20% of FTX. If I win, you give me 20% of FTX for free.”

Sam doesn’t hesitate. “Heads.”

CZ flips the coin into the air… It’s tails.

CZ grins, the coin in his palm. He starts to withdraw his hand when Sam reaches out to stop him. Surprised, CZ halts with the contact. 

Sam says, “Again. This time, I flip, you call it, $100MM for 20% or I give you 40%.”

CZ looks intrigued. “Now wondering, do I even want 40% given this interaction? And how much you are considering how to enforce this agreement?”

Sam shrugs. CZ hands him the coin. Both their eyes are on it as Sam flips it in the air…

===

1 year later…

A montage of people talking about FTX:

A day trader signs up for FTX. “You mean I can make money fast, easily, without posting much cash upfront? Genius.”

An effective altruist admires SBF. “He’s my hero. He’s proof that if you work hard, are well intentioned, super rational, and a genius, then you win. And humanity wins. Genius.”

A venture capitalist: “I love the risk neutral thing. One of the reasons Sam’s my favorite founder. At a big fund like ours, we don’t care if you make a lifestyle business, or even if you sell for a hundred million. We need bets that could potentially return the fund, otherwise it’s worthless to us. And normally founder interests aren’t aligned with that, but for Sam, that’s not the case. He doesn’t want to just make a few billion and call it a day. Heck, he’s already done that. He’s a billionaire but in his mind he’s fighting for the next dollar like he’s penniless. If I had 1% of his money, I would never work again. And yet he won’t settle for anything less than making ALL the money. And it’s brilliant how he justifies his greed using arithmetic around effective altruism. I think he actually believes it too, which makes it all the more effective. Genius.”

A celebrity listens to the investor talk. They sit across from Trabs. The celebrity nods along. “So if I get people to sign up for this thing, I’ll make more money?”

Trabs says, “More money for the community.”

The celebrity nods. “Sure, for ‘the community.’” The celebrity winks at the investor. “I already have hundreds of millions of dollars, but I’ve never had a billion.” 

The investor says, “This is guaranteed to score in the end zone. And who better to know about that, right? You’ll finally have billionaire status.”

===

SBF, Caroline, Trabs, Caroline’s parents, and SBF’s parents are all at dinner. SBF’s parents say, “I’m so glad we could help! Your company is world changing. I was just telling Professor Gordon that maybe his son should apply for one of your grants.”

SBF has a small smile. 

He glances over at Caroline, who’s gazing into Trabs’ eyes. Trabs and Caroline laugh together at a quiet inside joke. She shoves Trabs playfully. SBF’s smile drops. 

===

CZ watches SBF testify to Congress on TV. The chyron reads, “SBF lobbies against low integrity exchanges like Binance, calls for regulations, higher standards.” He throws a platter of whole roast pig across the room. He glares at SBF’s talking head on TV. “You think you’re so much better than us? You want to wipe us out? I will show you… Soon we see how each strength is also weakness. Faith in rationality blinds you to common sense. The key to your destruction is inside you. Just need to wait and help pull the trigger…”

===

1 year later…

Bahamas, 2022.

Trabs and SBF lounge are in their beautiful mansion. In contrast to the elegant molding and staircase, Trabs and SBF are dressed in slovenly clothes and are generally unkempt. The TV is behind them broadcasting how LUNA and all of crypto is tanking at a breathtaking rate.

Trabs says, “We can’t handle this toxic flow. These moves are massive, huge market gaps. And now we’re bailing out others? Where’s our bailout? All the other market makers pulled out so Alameda was left holding the bag.”

SBF shrugs, “Maybe our company doesn’t deserve to exist. If Alameda liquidity isn’t providing the FTX promise of best prices, speed, and least cash upfront, then FTX dies too. What’s the alternative to sticking it out?”

Trabs says, “The alternative is to just focus on the exchange. Being undercollateralized could kill-”

SBF interjects, “If people want to accept our token as collateral, who are we to-”

Trabs says, “I don’t want to accept it as collateral!”

SBF and Trabs look over at Caroline, who’s been sitting silently in the corner. SBF says, “What do you think, Caroline? You’re the Alameda CEO.”

Caroline squeaks, “Co-CEO.” She sighs. She hates when they fight. “I guess I don’t agree with Trabs… I think we have to keep doubling down. It’s… how we’ve gotten here. It’s the rational thing to do.”

SBF nods. He says, “The meaning of life isn’t keeping FTX alive. The bigger mission is to do as much good as possible. Even if it doesn’t work out 90% of the time, if the upside is so large that it’s positive EV, then we have a duty to do it.”

Trabs buries his face in his hands. “But now it’s so much more at risk. When is it enough? We’ve succeeded beyond our wildest dreams. When do we get to rest?”

SBF furrows his brow. “Rest? Enough? There are millions of people dying every day-”

Trabs groans. “Stop!” Everyone is silent for a moment. “What about us? I want a family one day. I want-”

SBF’s voice cuts Trabs off. “A family? That’s the most selfish thing I’ve ever heard.” He looks at Trabs with pain and betrayal. He had thought of them as a family. How could this not be enough for him? SBF’s face shows a moment of anguish before stiffening. “You want to leave? Is that what you’re saying?”

Trabs looks at SBF, “You know I don’t mean that. You’re my best friends. I would never leave you.”

SBF turns his back on Trabs. “If you’re not 100% with us, you’re a liability.”

Trabs’ eyes widen in disbelief. “Don’t do this, Sam. Why is everything so black and white with you? The world isn’t like that.”

“My world is. I don’t get to be normal. I’m either the hero or the villain, the good guy or the bad guy. I either save the world, or I fail.”

“Sam, we’re your friends. We love you even if you don’t do anything.”

SBF snorts in derision. “I’ll leave you two to figure out it how to announce it to the team.”

Trabs looks hurt and disbelieving. “You can’t wait to get me out of here.” He looks at Caroline. “And you. You always choose him, don’t you?”

Trabs rushes out of the room. Caroline pauses, looks at SBF uncertainly, then follows. SBF is left alone. The sun glitters in this tropical paradise while the tv shows the crypto world crashing. He’s distraught and quickly paces around the room, not sure what to do. He pulls out his computer and starts playing a video game.

===

A few months later…

SBF’s parents call him. He doesn’t answer the phone. They leave a voicemail, “Sam, we’re all so proud we get to work with you! I told Professor Gordon you’re the only one doing the right thing in this space.”

SBF cringes, hardens his jaw, plays his video game.

===

CZ watches Sam on TV. “You betray me for the last time. Such a good mask, you fool your team, reporters, even yourself, but you can’t fool me. You say you care about humanity, but you deny part of what makes you human- ego, selfishness, fear, stupidity. Now time to call your bluff… SBF, welcome to the human race.”

CZ tweets, “Due to recent revelations that have came to light, we have decided to liquidate any remaining FTT.”

===

Millions of traders react to CZ’s tweet and type rapidly on their computers.

In the Bahamas, Caroline’s team is in chaos. Dashboards are flashing red alerts, phones ring endlessly. An FTX employee asks Caroline, “All the customers are cashing out. Should we call Sam?”

Caroline looks like a deer in headlights.

===

Caroline and SBF pace around the room in silence. 

Caroline suddenly bursts into tears and runs into SBF’s arms. He holds her. 

Caroline cries. “I’ve ruined everything! I knew I wasn’t good enough. I’m just a kid. Alameda is dead. And now Trabs is gone.”

SBF’s face hardens. “We don’t need Trabs. I’ll take care of it.”

Caroline looks up at SBF and sniffles. “You’d risk FTX to save Alameda? But why?”

“There’s more to life than making billions of dollars a year.”

She looks up at him blankly. “There is?”

SBF looks at her tired, dear face. They’ve been through a lot together. Many time zones, many adventures, she’d always stuck by him. “Your utility to me is infinite.” SBF wipes the tears from her face. Cut to black.

===

A montage:

FTX-affiliated employee: “We wasted 1 to 3 years on this. That’s a long time! Now what do we do? Will anyone hire us if we don’t disavow? We always knew he was evil!”

An effective altruist: “He was evil, unlike me— I’m the good guy. It’s impossible that working hard, having good intentions, and being a genius isn’t enough. So logically he must’ve been not enough of one of those things. He’s smarter and harder working than me, so he must’ve been actively evil. He’s supposed to shut up and multiply when calculating EV, but not like that. I would never do what he did.”

MIT alum: “What if being MIT turns into a red flag for VC’s? At least we weren’t in his weird living group. You see, MIT has these houses called ILG’s—”

Celebrity: “No comment.”

FTX trader: “You mean he tried to make an easy, quick buck gambling, levered up, without posting cash upfront? What the heck? I would never do that! He’s a cheat!”

Business partner: “We were cheated.”

Warren Buffett: “My partner Charlie says you can’t cheat an honest man.”

CZ: “People say I wiped him out. I’m old man compared to SBF. Forgive me if I use old fashioned techniques like long squeeze, bank run. Not that I did. I only want to help the community.”

Trabs: “I think Sam thought of himself as a hero and acted as such. The cardinal sin of a business hero is losing money. Thou must make money, so he did what he had to do to fill that business hero role. A romantic hero must risk all to save the girl. An altruistic hero must risk all to save the world. Sam saw an opportunity to do all 3 and he had to take it. I think we put too much trust and responsibility in 1 person, which is how we got to the $30B+ valuation so fast, but it’s also how we lost it and more. It’s human to fail sometimes. And it’s human to make people into heroes and then love it when they topple off the pedestal.”

The and My Future

“Why are you taking the 101? Can’t you see your iPhone 5 is lying to you? Its map was wrong in Santa Clara and it’s wrong here.”
“The 101 is the 280’s uglier sister. Clearly Steve jobs wanted us to take this route. Anyway now we can have a nice talk where you advise me on my finances.”
It’s funny how I’m the financial expert amongst my non-trading friends even though my opinions are almost certainly things no financial advisor would recommend to anyone.

When I first joined GETCO, I introduced myself to a new employee saying, “GETCO is my first job after MIT,” and the closest person I had to a boss interjected, “And your last.” At the time I sincerely believed and hoped that this would be true. In 2007, the company had 30 traders across 4 offices. Each trader did whatever they decided was optimal in a market that bloomed with opportunity: it was like the wild wild west- so much fertile terrain waiting to be conquered by a few explorers, populated only by some occasionally annoying but generally innocuous natives. I loved it. I never had someone telling me what to do, or really even anyone questioning what I was working on. I didn’t think about the future after GETCO because who would ever want to leave? The business was exploding, we were at the forefront of technology, and if you hesitated to size up your coworkers would make increasingly loud chicken sounds.

4.5 years later, after Singapore I went straight to my NYC desk to clean it out, then to Chicago to resign. I and everyone assumed I was going to stay in HFT because I’m a “world class expert in HFT,” plus headhunters were busy setting up lunches with billionaires with ambitions regarding their nonexistent/proto/growing/declining HFT operations. I was advised not to sign anything till the noncompete was up so I participated in some fantastic handshakes and told everyone I’d see them after my noncompete was over.

I’m not good at vacation so I viewed this year as a rumspringa world tour- I just got back from New Zealand and am writing this while jetlagged, thinking about how my paid vacation will be up in 2.5 weeks. This year I zoomed my head out of focus to see what everyone else is looking at. Let me tell you: Other People are looking at some pretty crazy stuff. I met Verner Vinge and Ray Kurzweil at the Singularity Summit. Compared to these impassioned singularity people, I feel like an ape for mentally shrugging when they bring up existential risk and AI. Nevertheless, my main impression is it’s cool these people are contemplating and perhaps helping decide a vision of mankind as a species. Most people never think about that kind of thing, as individuals or as a species. What is the destiny of mankind? Who even asks this question? Shouldn’t we wander blindly towards our fates like all other species? Aren’t we just dominant, blessed by god to be gods among animals? Anyway, the Singularity Summit led me to go to Rationality camp. This post was originally about Rationality Camp but I guess I’ll write about that some other time (sorry to leave you as irrational as ever, although I can tell you that I made $280+ from poker, won a prize despite not being the most rational (Dilip had the most points in the whole camp but somehow lost his prize to me. Yes! Plus I beat him at some kind of augmented reality game, which victories are documented photographically)).

This year has been upside down: I’ve been paid to not work, spent more time in CA than NYC, and I realized I’m old- I think I’ve aged relative to my non-finance peers. I’m 27 and I’ve started finding younger people annoying. Those fools have no idea how lucky they are. At my age, people are suddenly so hard to impress. If I were starting a company at age 17 people would say, “Awesome.” Now everyone’s like, “Whatever.” Too old to be effortlessly impressive, too young to shove offending kids off my subway seat, I’m at an age when I don’t really notice anyone else’s age unless they bring it up, whereas for years I was conscious of even a year’s difference. Looking back at my childhood, the hours reading in the grass, the biking with friends, my main impression is that an idyllic childhood is a colossal waste of time. Yes, even the priceless hours bonding with family had diminishing returns, and no one really needs to read the collected works of anybody- very few writers have anything to say after their first real book.

Sometimes I see flashes of myself 10 years in the future, so clear it’s almost a memory. This year I started seeing what future Nancy would be if I kept going down the trading path, and I didn’t feel excited. In fact I felt bored. Because it’s basically the same as always, except I’d need increasingly larger sums to get the same level of stimulation. For someone who lives so much in the future, I hadn’t really thought about what I’d think about the future after (if) it already happened. When I’m 40 will I see my 20’s and 30’s the way I currently see my childhood- objectively successful by most measures but privately viewed by myself as largely a waste of time?

I feel ennui regarding the kind of stuff people are supposed to do in their late 20’s, early 30s: the house and marriage stuff. My mom was in constant turmoil over the fact that she was too sick to see me “settled” in my NYC apartment. Prior to NYC, she had “settled” me into all apartments I’d ever lived in. Perhaps out of a desire to do what I thought she’d want me to do, I went out and bought my first furniture since she forced me to buy my mattress 5 years ago when I first moved to Chicago and needed a non dorm issued mattress. I ended up buying a $5000 coffee table made from a single solid cross section of a gigantic tree. Maybe I thought my mom would rest assured in my competence if I showed her this coffee table and other furnitures, that I was a grown up and finally handling this kind of stuff. I think I even bought a house plant of some kind, which never would have occurred to me to do in my youth. Mom just wanted me to be happy, which might not be what I want for myself. Now that I know what it’s like to have the perfect set of plates, I never want to own plates again. That stuff is all at my dad’s house now, completely out of place with his ornate, plasticky furniture.

I think I might’ve reassessed my trajectory sooner if it weren’t for the parents’ cancers. Cancer put me in a mental state of martial law where I was single-mindedly attacking obstacles without considering the problems of philosophy- who cares about higher ambitions when it’s life or death?

Now I feel like there’s more pressure. Maybe this is true for us as a species too- just as we’re most successful, there’s the most danger. Humans have accomplished a lot relative to other animals so the universe is ours to lose, plus we have to decide the extent of our future ambition. Similarly, as a kid the difference between working a little and a lot was the difference between an A- and an A+, whereas now there’s so much at stake- it’s now the difference between losing money and making money.

I’m acutely aware of being the writer of not only my writing but also of my own life. It’s exciting and scary and writer’s block-inducing to decide the next act. But from my life there’s just one thing I ask: don’t tell me how it ends.

Questioning Your Beliefs

Another thing we discussed at this CFAR alpha testing ages ago is that we’re supposed to question our beliefs. A way to do this is by hanging out with people with beliefs different from our own. My first reaction to this was that it’d be hard to do because 1) I don’t know any idiots, and 2) I don’t want to hang out with idiots.

The instructor gave an example of hanging out with vegetarians to understand what vegetarians actually ate and to help deal with the discomfort of thinking about the morality of meat. Another example was to hang out with grad school dropouts and people who were never in grad school to understand what the rest of the world thinks of academia and the importance of PhDs.

After some reflection, I realized most of my friends disagree with me on some things, but probably not on the big things, or if they do, we don’t talk about it because we don’t want to argue. I generally suck at arguing because I get annoyed and start insulting and punching the other person (figuratively…).

This idea of engaging with people who think differently precipitated my beginning to participate more in internet communities. People don’t hesitate to disagree with me on the internet, whereas they are often quiet in real life, I guess intimidated by someone as wise and serious as I am.

Some topics where I discovered my beliefs are very different from the beliefs of most people:
1) HFT.
2) Politics.
3) Money.
4) Diet.
5) My own greatness.
6) Charity.
7. Olivia Wilde.
8) Patents.

I haven’t really modified any of my beliefs yet so I don’t know if any of this is working to make me more rational. However, I think I am understanding the opposing beliefs better. So here’s my modest goal for now: be able to describe what others’ points of view are on all topics where I have abnormal beliefs.

Is Charity Ever Immoral?

What are top Pittsburgh high school students interested in math, science, and computer science doing in the summers?

Many of the smartest math, science, and cs people I knew from the Pittsburgh area when I was in high school during 1999-2003 attended programs like Andrew’s Leap and PGSS. Recently I learned these programs have lost funding and ceased to run and/or degraded significantly in quality/reputation. After devoting resources passionately trying to raise funds, I suddenly questioned if my behavior was optimal- have these programs simply been replaced by superior alternatives? Is my desire to fund these programs based on a personal bias? As silly as it might sound, this question disturbed me greatly and kept me up all night. I’ve decided that I want to do what helps the most students rather than what I remember most fondly because the goal is helping students, not keeping alive institutions I happen to have enjoyed. If there now exist better programs for talented Pittsburgh students, then I’d like to know about them so I can allocate my resources to best help the most students and support those programs instead.

Andrew’s Leap and PGSS are awesome programs that help people. The question is not whether these programs add value but whether they are the best allocation of resources. Suppose there was another program exactly like Leap except it helped 2x as many students and it was named Steven’s Hop. Should I fund Hop or Leap? What if I know about the existence of Hop but decide to fund Leap anyway because I simply feel more attached to Leap, since I happened to have attended Leap (Hop did not exist; Leap was my only option at the time)?

Suppose the 2 most talented kids in Pittsburgh are dangling off a cliff and I have my old faithful dog Yeller who has the strength to drag one of them off the edge. But then suppose there exists another dog Lassie who is really strong and can pull BOTH the children off the cliff. Lassie is happily smile-panting next to me, waiting for me to say, “Go save both those kids, boy!” But I don’t even glance at Lassie and instead only have eyes for Yeller because he’s my faithful, old dog who rescued me from a cliff when I was a kid. I tell Yeller, “Go save a kid!” Yeller drags a kid to safety and then lies down, too exhausted to move for the next few hours while the second kid eventually falls to her doom. If you were watching, would you say, “Nancy, you are a hero for saving that kid!” or would you say, “Are you nuts? Why didn’t you use Lassie so you could save both those kids!”

This is a question no one would actually ask in real life because in real life no one sees the 2nd kid dead in the ravine. All they see is the one living kid hugging Yeller.

Maybe that should be good enough! After all, I don’t know what the Lassie would be in the real world (Yeller is PGSS/Leap). But if I did notice Lassie, would I be morally wrong in deciding to allocate my resources to Yeller instead of Lassie? If my goal were to help the most kids then I should use Lassie instead. But if my goal includes using Yeller as much as possible then maybe I can just go ahead and use Yeller.

I did some preliminary googling and didn’t find any other programs. So the theory that these summer programs help kids be successful in life would predict that future Pittsburgh kids will not be as successful. Ways we could measure this: economic decline of Pennsylvania, decline of Pittsburgh kids going to top schools or having good careers or going into science/math/cs. If it seems like none of these things are happening, then it would suggest that these programs didn’t matter as much as I thought and even though I had a good time it doesn’t matter that they don’t exist anymore. Time will tell, I suppose! In this case the painful process of generating data involves waiting and seeing if Pennsylvania declines or not. Is that a process we’re willing to endure? In the meantime, I posted this Quora question and am awaiting data via that forum.

One might ask, “What about saving 5 kids in Asia or something instead of 2 Pittsburgh kids?” I guess the response is, “That’s a question for another analogy. Today we’re not asking about Pittsburgh kids vs other kids, we’re assuming it’s the Pittsburgh kids we’re looking at on the cliff and the question is if we want to use Yeller to do it or Lassie.”